The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of ...

Aaron “Ronnie” Chatterji, chief economist at OpenAI and Sylvain Leduc, director of economic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, held a live discussion on the economic value of AI in ...

Central banks purchase bonds and other securities with their own reserves. In doing so, they expand the supply of safe assets ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Market-Based Monetary Uncertainty provides daily indicators measuring the uncertainty about future short-term interest rates based on ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (USMPD) collects high-frequency changes of interest rates and asset prices around Federal ...

A new group of research associates (RAs) joins the Economic Research team every year, bringing fresh perspectives and an excitement to learn from professional economists and others working at the SF ...

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

Òscar Jordà, senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of June 4, 2026.

Economic activity in the Twelfth District remained largely stable during the April through mid-May reporting period. Employment levels were generally unchanged, with most employers holding head counts ...

This paper documents facts about international trade in AI-related products. I develop a large language model (LLM) classification tool that maps HS10 codes in U.S. trade data to products used in the ...