The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of ...

Central banks purchase bonds and other securities with their own reserves. In doing so, they expand the supply of safe assets ...

Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in ...

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from ...

Recent shifts in immigration flows have lowered the estimates of net international migration into the United States. New data indicate that net migration will be close to half a million people in 2025 ...

Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have ...

State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor ...

After a prolonged decline, U.S. inflation-adjusted interest rates have increased somewhat since the pandemic—possibly implying a higher new normal. As central banks attempt to tame the post-pandemic ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Differences in prices for consumer goods and services across states have been increasing since the early 2010s. Those differences accelerated during the pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge.

Monetary policy is forward-looking and dependent on policymakers’ economic outlook. When the outlook is deemed highly uncertain, policymakers may put more weight on incoming data when making monetary ...